129667837359677892_135As if this week is full of bad news. The one hand, on November 24, the international rating agency Fitch announced Portugal sovereign ratings lowered to BB from the BBB-level of spam levels, Fitch, the reason given was Portugal severe fiscal imbalances and debt levels are high. Fitch announced that Portugal sovereign ratings from level BBB--level lowered to BBAnd give negative outlooks.
And the Moody to Portugal's rating to Ba2, lower than Fitch's assessment only p is still currently Portugal investment-grade sovereign rating. And this directly to the EU on November 23 with euro-bonds of three new programmes was overshadowed by another huge shadow, and this already because it had no plans toGermany supports Outlook.
Facing the bad news of the week is not just Europe, United States does not feel so much better. November 21, by the United States Congress for democracy, cut the deficit to the Special Committee consisting of members of the Republican Party (Super Committee) announced that in view of the representatives of two parties exist "unable to bridge major differences", the Committee could not be within the prescribed periodThe Federal Government to reduce the problem of agreeing.
This indicates that the Committee since its inception in August of this year's Red reduction efforts ended in failure.
United States perhaps fortunately is that rating agencies did not abandon Europe abandoned United States. P pointed out that deficit reduction mechanism will automatically start, which United States sovereign credit rating for the time being has no effect. Almost the same momentMoody's to support United States, pointed out that negotiations failed does not in itself sufficient to lead United States rating changes, the results for ratings analysis has the reference value, but not conclusive.
Although the two most important economies in the world, was appalled at this week, but their way or had already ceded in the eyes of global investors is different. Before the US and EuropeKing parted company "my basic prediction is that the euro will for the European economy back into recession, 2012 would be about 0.5% of negative growth, while Europe could be in the painful situation of high unemployment and deflation back. Europe's debt crisis will continue to heat up, Europe's banking system is suffering. "China Merchants securities (600,999) Vice President firstI Ding Anhua, an economist said. And its recent evolution of the European debt crisis is not optimistic, "sovereign-debt crisis to eurozone core countries spread through the banking crisis, there is risk of avalanche danger at all times.
"It pointed out. Non-Executive Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, Yale University Professor sidifenluoqi had reporters interview in BeijingAlthough there is now full of courage that, European Monetary Union to be able to survive, but European economic prospects remain bleak.
Economists on the United States are more optimistic about the prospects. "The recent United States economic data the tone well. "Ding Anhua pointed out. It further noted that, although the United States fiscal policies is uncertain, but I still thinkNext year's United States economic growth will be about 2%, inflation will fall, there is little risk of deflation.
This for different prospect, is based on both its own economic health and aid effectiveness of the mechanisms of different body.
First is economic activity on the status of the great differences between the two. Roach noted that European countries hadIn a State of recession.
Once at the heart of the Franco-German economic and leading economic indicators which also lacks an angry, particularly the sharp decline in Germany orders data, looming early weakness came "ominous signs".
The other hand, Europe should "tighten its belt" of reality is one of the downturn in economic activity in the region. "The next few years,Restructure fiscal belt-tightening was likely to inhibit the overall demand in Europe.
"Roach said.
In comparison, United States has seen a good improvement. Analysis of Ding Anhua United States recent economic data indicated that, while third-quarter GDP growth data released from the original down to 2.5% of, but mainly due to the commercial growth of inventory from the original release 5$ 400 million, down to a decrease of $ 8.5 billion respectively. Consumption growth better than expected export growth figures are adjusted upward.
This shows that last quarter United States enterprises need to replenish the stock, so as to promote economic growth, estimated last quarter GDP growth will reach 2.5% or above. "The United States economy will show a continuing trend of a weak recovery, inflation, but notGet into deflation.
"It pointed out.
Watershed significantly in economic activities, and in response to the debt crisis and response, and also determines the future of the two economies are different. Although the EU has launched a euro-bonds of three scenarios, but the market seems to be on it does not buy it.
While European policy instruments space is very narrow. "European financial and politicalPolicy in the context of tightening almost no room for expansion, only rely on monetary policy to support the economy overall. Estimates of the European Central Bank will cut interest rates further and adopt a more progressive policy of quantitative easing, which stepped up its purchase of sovereign debt to Member States in order to maintain the low interest rate environment and inject enough liquidity to the market.
"Ding Anhua pointed out. Its progressiveStep pointed out that the Member States of the European Central Bank's monetary policy such as buying bonds, expanding its balance sheet constraints experienced by more Germany opposed the issuance of euro-bonds and purchased by the European Central Bank's proposal.
Up until now, the European Central Bank in response to the sovereign debt crisis is still very limited. Roach also pointed out that the euro notes, the EFSFInjection of liquidity or quantitative easing measures, will not solve the problem now in Europe. While the United States were relatively more space, reduced Red after the failure of negotiations, the market turned the focus of the Obama economic stimulus measures such as tax cuts. Republican strategy is to require spending cuts
star wars the old republic, opposed tax increases, and constraints of the Democratic Party to take any aggressive fiscal stimulus. WhileHow the ultimate, next year depends on the United States presidential election year variable.
Two games on the party's economic policies would produce a certain unpredictability and uncertainty.
But the United States with Europe are faced with a huge variable, that is, debt crisis spread to the European banking industry deepened. Roach noted that bank capital shortages are likely to recover loans, andThis focus on bank credit intermediation system for Europe, this problem is very serious. United States on this issue are not immune, if European crisis Avalanche's major banks, United States in Europe cannot stand on the issue. For example, IMF play an important role in the rescue of Europe, United States you will need to provide the largest share of funding.Hedge funds abandon Europe this week, from Europe to the United States, was full of bad news, but because of this many for the economic prospects of the two judgments are different, most of the hedge fund investors and market death stare European debt problems, debt rather than the United States.
Market first abandon all European bonds. Germany on November 23Auction 3.644 billion euros of 10-year bonds, which means that its original EUR 6 billion auction of Treasury bonds failed to sell in full, and this is a dangerous signal. Because the crisis deepening in Europe, Germany national debt has been considered as a symbol of safer, after an Executive of Deutsche Bank's asset management company also told reporters, in the deep European debt crisisWhen Germany one bond is the eurozone investment haven, his reasons for giving are Germany's corporate performance is still strong. On November 23 Germany poor Treasury Auctions case, or that, Europe's last fall of a safe area has been gradually. Because after further to Italy after yields breakthrough 7%, November 17, Spain ten yearsTreasury yields to break 7.088%, since 1997.
Under the influence of previous message, all eurozone Government bonds had suffered a round of selling pressure.
The other hand, sniper entered a upsurge in hedge funds for the euro, and they flocked to safer assets--currently the dollar and commodities. Beijing time on November5th morning EUR/USD reaches low since early October, at which time the market rumours of a macro hedge fund selling euros. United States commodity futures trading Commission announced on November 15 CME currency futures position reports, short continues over long on the euro, with speculative-single is 24,048 hand, speculative empty for 100195 hands, each hand contract unit of 125,000 euros. This is the highest level since the middle of 2010.
At the time, about Greece or will default first impact on the market, the euro began to fall. Just within a week of November 9, the speculative bets on the euro alone rose 17995 hand, an increase of up to 22%, on November 8 the data only to 82,200 hands.
And this means that hedge funds and other investors in the market's bearish sentiment has been rising against the euro to one of the all-time, and appeared one after another to sell euro and talk of the same as illustrated. While the dollar is becoming a safe haven dollar extended-band uplink.But commodity appears confusing movements, which means that the steps on the commodities market investors such as hedge funds are not lines of simple models. United States commodity futures trading Commission announced on November 15 futures position report, hedge fund investment position cuts by stealth to 18 kinds of net long positions on futures and options
swtor power leveling, margin reached10%. Analysis of market participants, this may be a hedge fund will be settled on the commodities profit.
