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Year end already came, the policy of building city adjusting control that started in April from last year is in after experiencing a year of free and easy of half to rise and fall effect sees first eventually. How will policy of city of next year building and market change? Southern Metropolis Daily manages academic CEO height in Zhongshan university economy of national information center was interviewed to forecast department head to hold sword of presiding economy normal school concurrently to make the same score on forum, its think estate price already went reality to pledge the gender changes, next year policy will be right just needed model in small family development unlocks policy and capital limitation moderately, a gleam of was restricted to buy urban house price to may have the adjustment of 10%-20% 2012, blame be restricted to buy a city to adjust range finite. South: Value of each district estate now is to fall sound, most sound predicts next year especially the beginning of the year still has one round for certain fall situation. How do you look? Fan Jianping: Estate value begins occurrence materiality to change really. Appeared October house price " stop go up " , house price has formed downtrend. The target that controls house price to rise too quickly is tentative come true, should promote house price next reasonable regression. Estate materiality is adjusted will bring tremendous labour pains, with estate concern close together industry will be experienced " go inventory is changed " , " go producing can change " brutal process, a large number of lagging behind produce can will exit truly, only the market goes quiet, adjust ability visibility bottom. At present estate adjusting control is entered crucial, sensitive period. The possibility that house price turned to small to adjust by the situation of refuse to budge of early days 2012 is larger. Reasonable regression needs house price roughly several years time is finished, but last batches of estate are next year fiducial the closest test site that capital expires is catenary of development business capital, next year first half of the year is house price adjusts relatively apparent time paragraph. The price of house of town of a gleam of that was restricted to buy 2012 may have the adjustment of 10%-20% diablo 3 power leveling, blame be restricted to buy a city to adjust range finite. Gold of land sell one's own things drops compared to the same period 18% with the residence area of new go into operation is about to enjoy growth diablo 3 power leveling, mean increment of the residence after 2 years to decrease, also narrowed house price appears at the same time deep an adjustment possibility. Chinese estate market changes dimensional implementation to go with time inventory is changed, the possibility of soft landing is larger. Next year or the year after next, house price can have to change smally. Especially next year first half of the year, house price may have drop urgently, because that is development when business capital is the most nervous. Last door of financing of business of house property development is estate fiducial, majority expires first half of the year in next year. That develops business capital namely when chain is the fastest, the possibility that house price falls is very large. But if do not fall at that time, second half of the year also not need falls, because show capital cable length,had held out the past. Overall for, house price is impossible also to steep fall. South: Can policy of next year adjusting control have what kind of fluctuant? Fan Jianping: 2012 the point of policy of estate adjusting control is to restraining investment while demand policy strength is not loosened, take seriously more increase available supply. Next year of estate adjusting control steps down adamantinely for certain, stimulative house price is reasonable regression. Basically want to accelerate construction of housing of general goods room, enlarge available supply. Additionally need catchs housing of good safeguard sex to send work of financing, construction, operation diablo 3 gold, government, fulfil start working of housing of good safeguard sex to build a plan, form as soon as possible supply effectively. The residence this year invests area of new go into operation to also had been adjusted. Before 8 months, area of new go into operation is added fast be in all the time 30% above. A lot of person criticises adjusting control is trashy. As safeguard room is much September start working, growth of area of residential new go into operation drops 8.9% , arrived again October 2.2% , began to enjoy growth November. What take the ground to build a house now so is little. After two years, bridal chamber is rolled out little also. The change that this kind of housing supplies, reduced the possibility that house price steeps fall after two years actually. If center adjusting control does not get the word of exterior interference, I feel house price falls should be inside reasonable range, the bank won't be procrastinated to enter the water, the likelihood realizes soft landing successfully. House price appears considerably, the possibility that adjusts for a long time decreases, hopeful of Chinese estate market achieves healthy progress. Only house price realizes soft landing, economic ability soft landing. From the policy of next year estate arrangement is told, national control has two points, one is to should restrain investment, another increases reasonable supply namely. Estate is the price not just exorbitant problem. More important is our economy grows means to need to adjust. It is short-term action not just to the adjusting control of estate, more important is to should let whole capital flow to forward the country turns the way that grows structure of means, attune goes. To the adjusting control of estate, inevitable meeting brings a series of labour pains. Above all, estate itself has go the course that inventory changes. Steely cement should go accordingly inventory, go producing at the same time can change. Estate is occupied than fall after a rise, the GDP that means steely cement building materials is occupied than also wanting fall after a rise. If adjusting control is successful, one batch lags behind produce can want to fall into disuse necessarily. This process is very painful, dan Chi wants early to happen, and we are not far also from estate bubble, depend on market itself, the likelihood spends period of time also after all is to should be defeated, still be active adjusting control is good. Responsibility edits: NF045